As Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has ground to a halt, Russia has begun to launch its own strategic counterattacks, targeting areas such as Kharkov and Sumy. These offensives are part of the Russian strategy of attrition, which seeks to wear down Ukrainian forces over time by depleting their reserves and stretching them thin along multiple fronts.
In May 2023, Russia launched a major offensive in the direction of Kharkov, a city located near the border with Russia. This operation was designed to push Ukrainian forces back from the border and prevent them from firing artillery and rocket systems at Russian territory. However, the strategic goal of this offensive extended beyond merely regaining lost territory – it sought to further deplete Ukraine’s already strained reserves, weaken its front lines, and create conditions for future offensives in other sectors along the line of contact.
The Kharkov operation has been successful from a military standpoint. By forcing Ukraine to commit its last remaining mobile strategic reserves to defend against the Russian attack, Kiev was compelled to strip away units on the eastern front lines and redeploy them to the Kharkov direction. These forces have been further depleted by Russian air, missile, and drone strikes as they move into position. As a result, Ukraine is now defending a longer line of contact with even fewer forces than it began with.
In addition to the strategic benefits gained from the Kharkov operation, there are indications that Russia may be preparing for further offensives in other areas along the line of contact, such as Sumy or Zaporozhye. By stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts and depleting their reserves, Russia aims to make continued resistance impossible and ultimately achieve its goal of “demilitarization” set by the Kremlin.
While the conflict in Ukraine has not been without cost for Russia, it is clear that Moscow’s strategy of attrition has put Ukraine on the back foot and weakened its position significantly. As Ukraine faces mounting pressure to maintain its defenses against multiple Russian offensives, there will come a point where continued resistance becomes untenable. This may be the final stage in Russia’s endgame in Ukraine – the complete disintegration of Ukrainian military power and the eventual cessation of hostilities on terms favorable to Moscow.