Houston, Texas – The U.S. government forecasters have announced their predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season beginning on June 1st. They expect an “extraordinary” year with up to seven major hurricanes being formed during this period. This forecast exceeds that of the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season, which saw the formation of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
In a May forecast, experts anticipate between four and seven major hurricanes as part of an estimated eight to thirteen hurricanes expected from a projected seventeen to twenty-five named tropical storms. Rick Spinrad, administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released this information.
A typical hurricane season generates 14 named storms with winds at least 39 miles per hour or 63 kph. Out of these, seven would become hurricanes with winds over 74 mph or 119 kph and three would be classified as “major,” with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph or 178 kph.
The forecasters believe that the higher number and strength of storms in 2024 can be attributed to the expected rise in sea temperatures and a decrease in wind shear conditions during August and September, when the hurricane season peaks.
This forecast has higher ranges than 2005,” stated lead forecaster Matthew Rosencrans at a news conference webcast from Washington, D.C., emphasizing that these are the highest ranges ever predicted by NOAA.
In comparison, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season saw three major hurricanes form among seven total hurricanes and twenty named storms – marking it as the fourth-greatest number of named storms since 1950. The most damaging storm in this period was Hurricane Idalia, which struck the west coast of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.
NOAA’s forecast serves as one of several closely monitored by coastal communities and energy companies alike. The Colorado State University forecast issued in April projected five major hurricanes out of eleven total hurricanes forming part of a projection for twenty-three named tropical storms.
The U.S. Gulf of Mexico is an essential region, accounting for 15 percent of total U.S. crude oil production and 5 percent of its dry natural gas output. Almost half of the nation’s oil-refining capacity lies along this coastline.
NOAA’s forecast aligns with other initial outlooks, such as that from private forecaster AccuWeather, which states there is a 10-15 percent chance of having 30 or more named storms during the 2024 hurricane season, which concludes on November 30th.