Former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in the polls for the November elections, as per recent data. Republicans have managed to maintain their lead even with the addition of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The race has tightened since Super Tuesday when Trump consistently led in the polls. Trump performs slightly better with Republicans and his own 2020 backers than Biden does with Democrats and his 2020 supporters.
In a recent poll, President Biden was found to be maintaining a “popularity edge” over his challenger. This marks the third consecutive week in which Biden’s net favorability rating has bettered Trump’s—the longest such stretch since April 2023.
The latest betting odds at Polymarket as to who will win the 2024 presidential race have 55% of people putting their money on President Trump to secure his second term, a 14 percentage point lead over President Biden with 39% backing. Overall, the GOP candidate had a 3.6 percentage point lead over President Biden in the seven states surveyed. His largest lead was in Nevada at 6.2 points, followed by North Carolina with 5.4 points, Arizona with 5.2 points, and 4.6 points in Georgia.
According to political analysts, there is a “hidden Trump vote” that could be contributing to the poll numbers favoring the former president. These hidden voters may not openly express their support for Trump, but they still make up a significant portion of his base. The share of these hidden voters varies by state, but “you’ve probably got three to five percent of Trump people kind of under the radar.
Furthermore, the Gallup report states that the Democratic Party’s wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years. Democrats’ leads among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29 have slid nearly as much, resulting in Democrats holding only a modest edge among both groups. This shift in voting preferences among minority voters can be seen consistently in survey data and has also influenced actual electoral results since 2016.
Despite this trend, some political figures such as House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) argue that President Biden still holds strong support among African American communities. I go to an African American barbershop. I go to an African American Church. Joe Biden is as strong with African Americans as he has ever been,” Mr. Clyburn said.
Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, believes that the shift in voting preferences among minority voters is genuine and not just wishful thinking on the part of Democrats. And there’s just real movement and more diversity in the electoral outcomes in [predominantly black and Hispanic precincts] than had been true in the past.
In a recent interview, President Biden criticized his predecessor and those supporting extreme MAGA ideals for going after initiatives aimed at promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion across America. They want a country for some, not for all,” he said.